I used to think confidence meant truth. If someone spoke with certainty, they probably knew what they were talking about. If I felt certain about something, I was probably right.
This is backwards.
Certainty is a feeling. Truth is a fact. They’re completely different categories.
I can feel certain that my keys are on the kitchen counter. Walk to the kitchen. No keys. My certainty was real. My belief was false.
The feeling of certainty comes from lots of things that have nothing to do with truth. Repetition makes us feel certain. Social pressure does too. So does wanting something to be true.
People who’ve studied a topic for decades often speak with less certainty than people who skimmed a blog post yesterday. The experts know how much they don’t know. The beginners don’t know what they don’t know.
This creates a weird dynamic. The most confident voices in any conversation are often the least informed ones. They haven’t learned to doubt themselves yet.
I notice this in myself all the time. I feel most certain about topics I’ve thought about least. The more I learn about something, the more complicated it gets. The more complicated it gets, the less certain I feel.
Which is probably closer to the truth.