We’re remarkably bad at predicting what will make us happy.
Research shows this again and again. People think getting the promotion will make them happier than it does. They think the breakup will devastate them longer than it does. They think moving to California will boost their mood more than it does.
The pattern is always the same: we overestimate both the intensity and duration of future emotions.
Psychologists call this “affective forecasting.” We’re terrible at it.
Part of the problem is that we imagine our future selves in a vacuum. When I picture getting that raise, I imagine myself feeling great about the raise. I don’t imagine myself two months later, when the raise feels normal and I’m worried about something else entirely.
We also forget how adaptable we are. Humans adjust to almost anything, good or bad. The fancy car becomes just your car. The bigger apartment becomes just where you live.
This isn’t depressing news. It’s useful.
If you know you’ll adapt to most changes, you can stop chasing the big happiness boost that probably isn’t coming. You can focus on things that actually sustain pleasure: relationships, meaningful work, simple comforts that don’t wear off.
The best part? Knowing you’re bad at predicting happiness makes you a little better at it.