Why You're Terrible at Predicting What Will Make You Happy (The Science of Affective Forecasting)
We’re remarkably bad at predicting what will make us happy. Research shows this again and again. People think getting the promotion will make them happier than it does. They think the breakup will devastate them longer than it does. They think moving to California will boost their mood more than it does. The pattern is always the same: we overestimate both the intensity and duration of future emotions. Psychologists call this “affective forecasting....